In Search of Cross-border E-commerce Trade Data

UN CTA UNITED NATIONS IN SEARCH OF CROSS-BORDER -COMMERCE TRADE DATA UNCTAD Technical Notes ICT Development ˚6 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT DIVISION ON TECHNOLOGY AND LOGISTICS SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND ICT BRANCH ICT ANALYSIS SECTION TECHNICAL NOTE NO 6 UNEDITED TN/UNCTAD/ICT4D/06 APRIL 2016 Search Cross-border -commerce Trade Data technical note based study commissioned UNCTAD prepared lead consultant Michael Minges, contributions guidance Torbjörn Fredriksson, Diana Korka Scarlett Fondeur UNCTAD. includes comments received Paul Donohoe José Ansó UPU. note prepared UNCTAD contribution joint effort World Trade Organization (WTO), Universal Postal Union (UPU) UNCTAD improve availability statistics cross-border -commerce. 1 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 2 OFFICIAL STATISTICS ON CROSS-BORDER -COMMERCE ................................. 2 2.1 ENTERPRISE SURVEY DATA .................................................................................................... 2 2.1.1 EXAMPLES OF DATA COLLECTED FROM ENTERPRISE SURVEYS ......................................... 2 2.1.2 TOWARDS IMPROVING THE COMPARABILITY OF DATA ON TRADE AND CROSS-BORDER - COMMERCE ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 CONSUMER SURVEY DATA ...................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 EXAMPLES OF DATA COLLECTED FROM CONSUMER SURVEYS .......................................... 5 2.3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS ..................................................................................... 6 2.4 POSTAL SHIPMENTS ................................................................................................................ 9 3 PRIVATE SECTOR DATA ON CROSS-BORDER -COMMERCE ............................ 11 3.1 DATA FROM -COMMERCE COMPANIES .............................................................................. 11 3.2 OTHER PRIVATE SECTOR DATA RELATED TO MEASURING CROSS -BORDER -COMMERCE . 14 3.2.1 PARCEL DELIVERY .............................................................................................................. 14 3.2.2 INTERNET TRAFFIC ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.3 PAYMENTS DATA ................................................................................................................. 18 3.2.4 DIGITAL TRADE ................................................................................................................... 19 4 CROSS-BORDER -COMMERCE ESTIMATES ........................................................... 21 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 22 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 26 1 1 Introduction report explores sources data gauging cross-border -commerce. Business--Business (B2B) -commerce accounts dominant share global -commerce important component cross-border sales online (UNCTAD 2015a). , data B2B -commerce generally scarce, attention consumer-oriented shopping (.. Business Consumer (B2C) Consumer--Consumer (C2C) ( Box 1.1). general, scant information cross-border -commerce. estimates -commerce clear distinction domestic international. official statistics exist typically derived enterprise surveys consumer surveys. capture B2C B2B -commerce, consumer surveys capture B2C C2C transactions. definitions -commerce. report adopted Organization Economic Cooperation Development (OECD):1 "... sale purchase goods services, conducted computer networks methods specifically designed purpose receiving placing orders. goods services ordered methods, payment ultimate delivery goods services conducted online. -commerce transaction enterprises, households, individuals, governments, public private organisations. included orders web, extranet electronic data interchange. type defined method placing order. excluded orders telephone calls, facsimile manually typed -mail.” Box 1.1: Types -commerce • Business--business (B2B). B2B accounts bulk -commerce. involve online versions traditional transactions related goods subsequently sold consumers retail outlets. involve provision goods services support businesses, outsourcing offshoring. specialized B2B platforms, typically catering industries chains. • Business--consumer (B2C). B2C involves sales "pure play" -commerce enterprises consumers traditional bricks--mortar retail manufacturing firms add online sales channel. wide range channels reach consumers, including social networks, crowdsourcing platforms, dedicated -commerce websites, mobile applications . products sold physical goods digital products services. • Consumer--consumer (C2C). C2C -commerce modern version classified advertising section newspaper auction. covers online marketplace platforms (.. eBay Taobao), sales online communities, consumer blogs chat rooms. • Business--government (B2G): B2G transactions similar B2B, buyer case government entity, requests bid public -procurement. Source: UNCTAD, 2015a. distinctions type product, target market, device placing orders. - commerce involve physical goods, services purchased online delivered person, intangible products (goods services) delivered digitally. 1 http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/sti_scoreboard-2011- en/06/10/index.htmlcontentType=&itemId=%2Fcontent%2Fchapter%2Fsti_scoreboard-2011-64- en&mimeType=text%2Fhtml&containerItemId=%2Fcontent%2Fserial%2F20725345&accessItemIds= 2 report reviews availability data related cross-border -commerce perspective official statistics, private sector sources, company reports market research. challenge data private sources lack detail methodology , goods services included. proxies linked cross-border -commerce examined relevance. report concludes observations developments cross-border -commerce recommendations improving enhancing statistical measurement. 2 Official statistics cross-border -commerce section official sources -commerce statistics compiled government agencies , element cross-border information. , enterprise survey data (supply side) consumer survey data (demand side). survey types highlight aspect cross-border -commerce. Typically enterprise surveys capture -sales resident firms foreign consumers enterprises (B2B B2C). Individual surveys capture -purchases residents foreign businesses individuals (B2C C2C). section ends introducing additional comprehensive official data sources interesting proxies cross-border - commerce: balance payments statistics statistics postal shipments. 2.1 Enterprise survey data significant number countries undertake enterprise surveys, include questions modules ICT . line recommendations Partnership Measuring ICT Development, typical questions related -commerce enterprises received orders Internet. orders relate B2C B2B -commerce, include domestic international transactions. enterprise surveys enquire orders received Internet. Ideally, include amount sales broken B2B B2C, distinguishing domestic cross-border orders. , countries collect data business -commerce sales include questions share cross-border transactions. case developing countries. B2B accounts bulk -commerce worldwide greatest impact international trade, enterprise surveys offer greatest potential improving availability reliable estimates cross-border -commerce. Enterprise surveys offer opportunity compare data cross-border ecommerce data enterprise exports. achieved including -commerce-related questions surveys trade enterprises including question related trade existing -commerce surveys. examples existing official -commerce statistics cross-border element. examples refer data developed countries. 2.1.1 Examples data collected enterprise surveys Eurostat disseminates years data enterprises carried sales overseas Internet (Figure 2.1). data refer proportion enterprises conducted sales (received orders) provide information . data refer total Internet sales, distinguish B2B B2C. cross-border aspect, survey collects information destination -sales country, EU countries rest world. fifths EU enterprises sell Internet sales EU quarter online sales rest world. proportion change 2011 2013. 3 exception Italy, smaller economies active selling rest world. minor adjustments EU ICT enterprises survey distinguishing overseas B2B B2C sales. discussed . Figure 2.1: Proportion enterprises selling cross-border ( share (%) enterprises -commerce sales), Europe Note: Refers Internet sales (B2B B2C) 12 months enterprises 10 employees excluding financial sector. Source: Adapted Eurostat. Statistics Canada compiles -commerce data data sets, capturing side cross-border aspect, providing total figure cross-border -commerce.2 datasets obtained enterprise surveys survey individuals (Table 2.1). Survey Digital Technology Internet enterprise survey data proportion overseas Internet sales Canadian enterprises.3 refers B2B B2C sales broken sales United States rest world. Annual Retail Trade Annual -store Retail Surveys enterprise surveys report retail - commerce trade limited retail sector. , amount spent foreign consumers Canadian online shops .4 Canadian Internet Survey captures consumer online spending goods services originating home , estimate published cross-border proportion. estimate C2C . 2 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140708/dq140708b-eng.htm 3 http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=3580230&&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2= 31&tabMode=dataTable&csid= 4 http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=0800026&pattern=080-0011%2C080- 0012%2C080-0013%2C080-0023%2C080-0025%2C080-0026&tabMode=dataTable&srchLan=-1&p1=-1&p2=-1 93 40 23 94 40 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 country EU countries Rest world 2011 2013 0 20 40 60 80 100 Romania Norway Poland Czech Republic Hungary Ireland Italy Malta Cyprus Luxembourg Top & bottom 5 sales rest world Rest world EU countries country 4 Table 2.1: surveys -commerce estimates cross-border element, Canada, 2012 Survey Amount ($ bn) Description Annual Retail Trade Survey Annual -store Retail Survey (sector-specific enterprise survey) 7.7 Retail -commerce sales defined purchase commitment purchase goods services Internet. figures include sales retailers sell store website addition retailers operate physical presence. Internet purchases -Canadian retailers sites excluded. -commerce sales Canadian retailers international parties included. enterprise classified retail trade establishments part sector wholesaling manufacturing. Survey Digital Technology Internet (enterprise survey) 13.4 figure includes online sales consumers businesses country differs data retail trade surveys conducted enterprise level. Canadian Internet Survey (survey individuals) 18.9 Reports types products purchased - commerce individual Canadians. estimate includes purchases individual Canadians country type item including captured retail sales travel arrangements entertainment tickets. Source: Based Statistics Canada data : http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily- quotidien/140708/dq140708b-eng.htm. Based surveys mentioned , estimated Canadian enterprises 2012 $ 13.4 bn Internet sales. share foreign consumers (businesses individuals) 20% (Figure 2.2, left). case data compiled national statistics agency Spain, total web sales enterprises 10 employees broken destination (Spain, EU, rest world) (Figure 2.2, ). Data total web sales purchaser (consumer, business government). Figure 2.2: Canadian -commerce sales destination, 2013 Spanish -commerce web sales destination purchaser, 2014-15 Note: * includes web sales part total B2B B2G. Source: Adapted Statistics Canada Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), Spain. Canada 80% United States 14% countries 6% Canadian -commerce sales (% distribution), 2013 5 Japanese Ministry Economy, Trade Industry (METI) official source data bilateral B2C trade selected destinations. METI reported total B2C sales Japan, China United States 2014 amounted US$21 billion (Table 2.2). , Japanese consumers purchased ten times ( ) United States Chinese shopping web sites, split US Chinese consumers roughly equal. factor driving United States residents purchase Asian web sites large diaspora-- 2.5 million Chinese born 300,000 Japanese born US residents 2014.5 Asian -commerce companies stepping efforts tap consumers English web sites logistics shipping partnerships.6 Table 2.2: Cross-border B2C trade Japan, China United States, 2014, US$ million Purchases web sites → Consumers ↓ Japan USA China Total Japan $1,786 $186 $1,973 USA $4,604 $3,089 $7,692 China $5,735 $5,949 $11,683 Total $10,339 $7,735 $3,275 $21,349 Note: Converted US$ 2014 annual average exchange rate. Source: Adapted METI 2015. 2.1.2 improving comparability data trade cross-border - commerce examples show developed economies small significant proportion enterprises sell online customers foreign customers significant proportion Internet sales. based data assess proportion cross-border -commerce trade statistics. Supply side enterprise surveys revised capture export sales cross-border - commerce sales. , Eurostat' enterprise survey adapted include questions proportion -commerce sales domestic overseas customers proportion total sales domestic overseas customers (Table 5.1). Alternatively exiting linked trade business register data collection initiatives, trade enterprise characteristics enterprise survey adapted include questions -commerce (domestic ). 2.2 Consumer survey data countries conduct surveys households individuals obtain data consumption patterns. surveys include data online shopping, typically cover B2C C2C -commerce, domestic cross-border. , capture information B2B transactions. 2.2.1 Examples data collected consumer surveys Eurostat collects data proportion overseas online purchases Internet users EU countries. distinction online purchases EU member -EU countries. assumed retail purchases. important assumption Internet users aware site overseas site owned foreign company based 5 .. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates http://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/14_1YR/S0201//popgroup~762|770. 6 South China Morning Post. 2014. “Time Amazon Move China’ Alibaba Takes World,” September 10. http://www.scmp./news/china/article/1589639/alibaba-taps-chinese-diaspora-global-reach-- takes-amazon. 6 country. point relevant -tailers, Amazon, marketplaces, eBay, overseas sites. Data collected purchases online. proportion online shoppers purchasing national sites (88% 2014) fluctuate years. proportion purchasing EU sites grew percentage points 2010 2014, 22 29 percent. percent online shoppers EU online shop located. huge country differences EU. 90% online shoppers Cyprus, Malta Luxembourg buy foreign web sites compared 13% Poland Romania (Figure 2.3). high proportion shoppers foreign web sites EU' smallest countries suggest consumers substituting limited higher priced domestic retail options. Figure 2.3: Percentage online shoppers location web shop, EU Note: 12 months. Source: Adapted Eurostat. Canadian Internet Survey estimates consumer online spending broken domestic foreign sites latest data 2009 (Table 2.1).7 2.3 Balance payments statistics Overseas -commerce technically balance payments statistics captured good service import export (Box 2.1). , practice case. Digital products purchased Internet intangible declared customs. Shipments amount captured trade statistics. Zealand, national statistics office identified -covered areas. Goods NZ$1,000 recorded overseas merchandize trade amounts . NZ$150 million imported declared NZ$ 400-999. figure changed years possibly suggesting overseas goods purchased online Zealanders valued NZ$ 400, declared. statistical office exploring ways 7 http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/comm23-eng.htm. 89 91 91 89 88 22 23 25 26 29 13 12 13 14 17 5 4 5 7 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 EU National EU Rest world Unkown 13 13 20 22 27 77 78 93 95 96 0 20 40 60 80 100 Poland Romania Czech Republic Germany Hungary Austria Iceland Luxembourg Malta Cyprus Top 5 bottom 5, Online purchases overseas websites (% online shoppers) 2014 7 estimate goods sales digital products purchased Internet overseas.8 Digital trade term , studies build balance payments statistics refer trade ICT related enabled services cross-border exports digital products (Mandel 2014). ICT services (.., ICT-enabled services) captured balance payments categories covering communications, computer services information services. noted Partnership Measuring ICT Development recommends information services excluded "ICT services".9 definitions employed, category communications refers "transactions residents nonresidents... services comprise postal, courier, telecommunications services (transmission sound, images, information modes maintenance / residents / nonresidents)". computer information services refer "...resident/nonresident transactions related hardware consultancy, software implementation, information services (data processing, data base, news agency), maintenance repair computers related equipment."10 extent services include -commerce differs. Communications transactions relate payments transmission content. categories courier services relevant context -commerce, data level detail. , countries United States, home largest courier services world, include courier data broader category airfreight.11 computer information services relate downloadable software newspapers case courier services classified intellectual property transactions personal, cultural entertainment services. Classifications digital music, books related products differ depending licensed, purchased, rented, . short, balance payments classifications hard interpret item candidate multiple categories depending legal practical noted, data cross-border -commerce analysis part broader categories rarely broken . Figure 2.4 illustrates data components ICT services.12 Note shift newer version balance payments classification international data breakdown communications computer information services longer easily . 8http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/balance_of_payments/BalanceOfPaymentsYearEn ded_HOTPYe31Mar12Corrected/Data%20Quality.aspx#ecom. 9 UNCTAD 2015b. 10 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bopman/bopman.pdf. 11 http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfmReqID=62&step=1#reqid=62&step=6&isuri=1&6210=4&6200=160 12 revision Balance Payments classification, communications, computer information services separately WTO database 2013. 8 Figure 2.4: Information communications services trade Source: Adapted WTO. Box 2.1: Digital trade balance payments Postal courier services 10.82 Postal courier services cover pick-, transport, delivery letters, newspapers, periodicals, brochures, printed matter, parcels, packages...Postal services subject international agreements, service entries operators economies recorded gross basis. 10.84 Courier services include express door--door delivery...Excluded movement mail carried air transport enterprises (recorded transport, air, freight)... . Charges intellectual property ... 10.137 Charges intellectual property ... include: () Charges proprietary rights ( patents, trademarks, copyrights, industrial processes designs including trade secrets, franchises). rights arise research development, marketing; () Charges licenses reproduce distribute ( ) intellectual property embodied produced originals prototypes ( copyrights books manuscripts, computer software, cinematographic works, sound recordings) related rights ( live performances television, cable, satellite broadcast). 10.138 production books, recordings, films, software, disks, -stage process stage production original stage production copies original. output stage original legal de facto ownership established copyright, patent, secrecy. owner asset produce copies give purchaser license . Alternatively, owner issue license producers reproduce distribute content. payments licensee owner ways, fees, commissions, royalties... contrast temporary rights , outright sales patents, copyrights, industrial processes designs included research development services (discussed paragraph 10.147). Similarly, temporary rights computer software audiovisual originals treated differently outright sales ... Computer services 10.143 Computer services consist hardware- software-related services data-processing services... Computer services include: 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Communications services US$ % services 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Computer & Information Services US$ % services 9 () noncustomized (mass-produced) software downloaded electronically delivered, periodic license fee single payment; () licenses noncustomized (mass-produced) software storage device disk CD- ROM periodic license fee (noncustomized software storage devices licenses convey perpetual included goods; paragraph 10.17() Table 10.4); Information services 10.146 Information services include news agency services, provision news, photographs, feature articles media... included direct nonbulk subscriptions newspapers periodicals, mail, electronic transmission, means; online content provision services; library archive services. ...Downloaded content software (included computer services) audio video (included audiovisual related services) included information services. . Personal, cultural, recreational services 10.161 Personal, cultural, recreational services consist () audiovisual related services () personal, cultural, recreational services. Audiovisual related services 10.162 Audiovisual related services consist services fees related production motion pictures ( film, videotape, disk, transmitted electronically, .), radio television programs (live tape), musical recordings. 10.163 Included amounts receivable payable rentals audiovisual related products, charges access encrypted television channels ( cable satellite services). 10.164 Mass-produced recordings manuscripts purchased sold outright perpetual included audiovisual related services downloaded (.., delivered electronically). , CD-ROM, disk, paper, , included general merchandise. Similar products obtained license ( conveying perpetual ) included audiovisual related services, online content related audio visual media. ( paragraph 10.166 treatment originals.) principles timing related audiovisual related services, music film copyrights master recordings, types intellectual property, discussed paragraph 10.139. 10.165 Charges licenses reproduce distribute ( ) radio, television, film, music, excluded audiovisual related services included charges intellectual property ... Source: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/pdf/bpm6.pdf 2.4 Postal shipments online purchases goods require delivery, important link postal shipments -commerce. section includes data postal shipments, official data source compiled postal system. Private sector data parcel service providers referred chapter 3 private data sources. 1875, UPU compiling official statistics, annual official statistical survey, number postal items (letters, packets, parcels express mail) postal payment electronic postal transactions handled domestically internationally, covering 192 member countries, operated national postal operators. Merchandise ordered -line transported delivered international Parcel services, international Letter-post services including small packets 2 kilograms, Express Mail Services (EMS). 2016 onwards, revised UPU annual survey start covering parcel delivery operators, private sector, cover parcel express delivery market. 10 traditional UPU postal statistics, UPU officially collects transactional operational data real-time consolidation international postal tracking information systems. UPU, 2013, number international tracked postal items monitored postal networks reached 397 million, 2014 total number international tracked postal shipments 460 million, year--year growth 15.9 %. growth accelerated 2015 total number 568 million international postal shipments, 23.3 % year--year growth rate. Postal parcel delivery statistics relevant granular proxy analyzing cross- border -commerce involving physical goods. granularity postal tracking data unique compared official statistics sources. , official tracking data enable high- frequency monitoring global volumes tonnage transported ( daily basis figure 2.5), offers measure bilateral flows countries real-time conditions related ( correlated ) major global flows networks, international trade Internet data flows.13 2015, UPU’ official tracking systems data covering 201 countries territories, turn representing 23,000 postal connections countries millions postal routes countries, including regions periphery socio-economic activities. uneven access international -commerce services developing developed countries, capacity building international -commerce proxy indicators regional local levels critical policy makers area. International postal tracking data disaggregated countries postcode (zipcode) level, ensuring collection data - commerce-related shipments millions delivery points. Intermediate levels geographic disaggregation include traffic airport world , enabling distinction hubs spoke international -commerce ecosystem. Figure 2.5: Daily parcel tonnage transported international postal system (total number daily kilograms 1 October 2010 31 December 2015) Source: Universal Postal Union (2010 2015). 13 comparative analysis global flow networks “ International Postal Network Global Flows Proxies National Wellbeing” Hristova, Rutherford, Anson, Luengo-Oroz Mascolo (2016). : http://arxiv.org/pdf/1601.06028v2.pdf. 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 11 postal data invaluable monitoring -commerce respects mentioned , careful analysis account number aspects data. foremost, operational evidence international postal flows increasingly driven -commerce transactions, international parcel shipments result -commerce. , number challenges presented data difficult compare statistics postal system private providers postal market. result, number parcels shipped -commerce roughly approximated current circumstances. , UPU’ efforts redesigning official postal delivery annual statistics combination real-time tracking data, abovementioned caveats mitigated coming years. , important inferences volume growth international parcel shipments chapter 3. 3 Private sector data cross-border -commerce 3.1 Data -commerce companies data cross-border activities large companies engaged -commerce. data provide perspective cross-border purchases sales reported statistical agencies. paucity official statistics, private sector organizations stepped provide estimates demand side cross-border -commerce. , study PostNord consumers Nordic countries quantified number shoppers amounts online retail spend domestically overseas year 2014. surveyed 5,000 consumers Denmark, Finland, Norway Sweden. PayPal, online payment company, 2013 commissioned Nielsen, consultancy, survey 6,000 online shoppers countries. study estimated total number shoppers buy online overseas amount spent (Figure 3.1 Table 3.1). Figure 3.1: popular overseas online shopping destinations countries, 2013 Note: surveyed countries Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, United Kingdom United States. Source: PayPal 2015. 12 Table 3.1: Cross-border online shoppers estimated sales, selected countries, 2013/14 PayPal 2013 PostNord 2014 Shop foreign sites () Overseas online spend (US$ ) shopper (US$) Shop foreign sites () Overseas online spend (US$ ) shopper (US$) Australia 6.3 6.3 999 Denmark 1.0 1.0 1,013 Brazil 5.3 1.1 209 Finland 1.1 1.3 1,134 China 18.0 35.1 1,952 Norway 1.5 1.7 1,118 Germany 14.1 10.1 716 Sweden 1.6 1.7 1,050 UK 15.9 13.3 836 Nordic 5.2 5.6 1,081 US 34.1 40.6 1,191 TOTAL 94 107 1,137 Note: Data PayPal study include airline tickets. Data PostNord study refer physical products . Source: Adapted PayPal 2015 PostNord 2015. -commerce estimates vary depending types transactions included (B2B, B2C, C2C), type revenue reported, accounting method globalization strategy companies. general, data reported international transactions refer sales overseas subsidiaries exports. , significant differences -commerce companies operate market place, case revenues related "listing fees", retailers, case revenues include products sell. top 10 companies retail -commerce revenues shown table 3.2. combined online Gross Merchandize (GMV) estimated account roughly global retail -commerce market. Table 3.2: Top ten companies retail -commerce revenue, 2014 Total International Fiscal year US$ % total sales US$ % total - commerce sales GMV (US$ ) Note 1 Amazon (US) Dec. 2014 83,391 94% 33,307 40% 83,391 -commerce revenue includes "media" & "electronics & merchandise". International sales international websites. includes export sales sites North American sites. 2 JD. . (China) Dec. 2014 18,535 100% <1% <1% 41,937 3 Walmart (US) Jan. 2015 12,200 3% 3,440 28% 12,200 International estimated basis contribution revenue. 4 Apple (US) Sep. 2014 10,200 6% 6,355 62% 10,200 iTunes Store . International estimated basis contribution revenue. 5 AliBaba (China) Mar. 2015 9,921 81% 285 3% 394,257 6 eBay (US) Dec. 2014 8,817 49% 4,633 53% 82,954 -commerce revenue refers "Marketplaces". International estimated basis contribution revenue. 7 Otto Group (Germany) Feb. 2015 8,622 54% 3,051 35% 8,622 8 cnova (Neth.) Dec. 2014 4,619 100% 2,499 54% 6,005 9 Buy (US) Jan. 2015 3,533 9% … 11% 3,533 International estimated basis contribution revenue. Figure domestic online revenue. 10 Rakuten (Japan) Dec. 2014 3,431 61% 468 14% 22,141 -commerce revenue refers "Internet services". TOTAL 163,269 19% 54,038 33% 665,240 Note: Excluding companies principally involved food industry. Source: Adapted company reports. 13 list top ten companies table 3.2 includes core business -commerce (.., Amazon, JD., AliBaba cnova) revenue derives segment. traditional retailers -commerce forms small portion total revenue (.., Walmart, Buy). Note Apple disclose total online revenue figures shown online music store. striking difference companies derive cross-border -commerce revenues. companies estimated retail -commerce international subsidiaries (.., Apple, eBay cnova). contrast, top Chinese -commerce companies, fractional amount related international undertakings. companies’ globalization strategies vary. setting country specific websites. Amazon, ranked list revenue, ten branded international websites (Figure 3.2). Similarly, Walmart eBay number branded overseas web sites. , including Otto Group cnova, number international online shops operating names. Rakuten, Japan' leading -commerce firms, rebranding overseas properties. Chinese -commerce firms pursued international strategies. JD. remains focused domestic market. Alibaba pursued unique business model Chinese consumers purchase foreign products foreigners buy Chinese retailers. launched Tmall marketplace overseas retailers penetrate Chinese market. , AliExpress website languages serve overseas consumers.14 Alibaba leading B2C companies significant B2B operations. include domestic international wholesale platforms. international B2B platform generated US$761 million revenue 2014 membership fees accounting 88% marketing services remaining 12%. Alibaba report GMV B2B platform. source estimated Chinese cross-border B2B - commerce sales US$680 billion 2014.15 Figure 3.2: Amazon' worldwide marketplaces, 2015 Source: http://services.amazon./global-selling/international-marketplaces.htm internationalization strategies -commerce firms classified categories: ) single standalone web sites, ii) dedicated web sites targeted overseas buyers, iii) customized web sites countries iv) establishing market place foreign retailers. implications cross-border -commerce trade measured country company level 14 AliExpress' revenue grew 88% 2014 fiscal year strong sales buyers Russian Federation, Brazil United States. 15 https://www.internetretailer./2015/04/13/b2b--commerce-sales-reach-16-trillion-china-2014. 14 (Figure 3.3, left). Data Finland show contribution categories retail -commerce revenues (Figure 3.3, ). Figure 3.3: Measurement impact international -commerce strategies Source: Left chart UNCTAD; chart Kurjenoja 2015. 3.2 private sector data related measuring cross-border -commerce section explores selected indicators proxies relevant analyze trends cross-border -commerce. includes statistics parcel shipments private service providers, Internet traffic, payments services trade. 3.2.1 Parcel delivery mentioned chapter 2, statistics parcel shipments relevant proxy analyzing trends cross-border -commerce. Data private sector confirm rapid growth rates reported postal system relation -commerce. French online shopping estimated triggered 400 million parcel deliveries 2014 (Fevad 2015). UPS, global logistics company, 2014 reported 11% increase deliveries "Cyber Monday", day online stores offer special discounts.16 Package delivery firms keen cross-border -commerce higher margins international shipping. number companies commissioned cross-border - commerce studies understand opportunities barriers (ComScore 2015, Forrester 2014, PostNord 2015). attractive proxy, international parcel shipments result -commerce. number data aspects complicate comparability. , private sector data include letters parcels letter post include small packets; courier firms proprietary names traffic statistics occasionally vague nature shipment; data arbitrarily separated factors parcels insured, express, . result, difficult answer parcels shipped -commerce. international postal tracking systems, bilateral data essential analyzing cross-border - 16 http://www.investors.ups./mobile.viewc=62900&=203&=1&id=2012923. Website (.., Amazon.fr) • Recorded French - commerce sales • Recorded international sales Amazon Dedicated single website (.., AliExpress) • Recorded Chinese - commerce sales • Recorded international sales Alibaba Single website (.., Etsy) • Recorded US - commerce sales • Recorded international sales Etsy (based address) Marketplace (.., Tmall) • Recorded Chinese - commerce sales; goods recorded Chinese imports • Recorded domestic sales Alibaba Domestic 56% Head office , stand- stores Finland 10% Head office , stand- stores Finland 34% Retail product -commerce, Finland, 2014 15 commerce rarely private operators , generally related volume (number parcel items tonnage) . limitations, inferences volume growth international parcel shipments. main carriers international parcels national postal agencies leading express delivery companies (DHL, FedEx, TNT, UPS).17 Data national postal agencies Universal Postal Union (UPU)) operating figures express companies suggest billion international shipments 2014, ten percent previous year.18 study looked cross-border parcel shipments number shipments estimate inter-country online sales (OC& 2014). biggest parcel market United Kingdom United States (Figure 3.4). , source data curious. , total postal courier exports United Kingdom 2013 stated US$1.8 billion total imports US$1.3 billion. OC& data, United States destination 64% United Kingdom' total postal courier exports 75% imports, figure high. United States statistics, total airfreight imports United Kingdom, figure includes courier services, US$348 million 2013, OC& study reported. detailed description OC& derived -commerce estimates parcel shipments. Figure 3.4: international parcel shipments, selected countries, 2013 Source: OC& 2014. 17 leading express firms represented Global Express Association. : http://www.global- express.org/index.phpid=2. Note FedEx offer purchase TNT. : http://www.tnt./corporate/en/data/press/2016/01/fedex--tnt-express-jointly-confirm--extension-- acceptance-period--public-offer.html. 18 UPU data refer international tracked post items, DHL data refer "time definite international items", data FedEx UPS refer "international export packages" ( FedEx data applying fiscal years ) data TNT refer "international consignments." Statistics express companies reported average daily basis annualized business days year multipliers. 16 Data trade airfreight services balance payments statistics potential source information courier shipments. separate pure express parcels, account substantial portion. Data airfreight postal services imports exports United States shown figure 3.5. show tendencies. , trends susceptible economic climate, shipments dropping 2007 financial crisis. , airfreight exports –including B2B B2C goods sales – grown faster transport modes. increased annual rate 35% 2000 2013 compared 13% postal service exports, 10% airfreight imports 2% postal service imports. , United States runs annual deficit postal services huge surplus airfreight. explanation parallels rise cross-border - commerce US' role leading -commerce shopping destination. PayPal study mentioned notes United States leading -commerce location selling 45% online shoppers countries. Figure 3.5: United States postal service airfreight trade, 2000-2013, US$ millions Source: Adapted Bureau Economic Analysis. 3.2.2 Internet traffic Online shopping instigated Internet volume data traffic generated provide indication -commerce trends regard services digital products. , - commerce transactions se bandwidth. Video accounted 60% world Internet traffic 2014 issues legal digital cross-border sales assumed free. Web, email data accounted 18% (Figure 3.6). minor proportion online shopping transactions total Internet traffic, trends bilateral flows provide insights cross-border -commerce trade. statistics bilateral Internet traffic good proxy -commerce transactions se (actual orders conducted online), provide good indication existing bilateral exchanges information goods services, typically precede follow actual -commerce transactions. 497 430 366 445 603 634 606 563 592 453 361 442 519 525 244 258 235 243 296 309 321 323 302 224 230 389 346 351 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Postal services imports Postal services exports 5,776 5,428 5,787 6,869 7,726 9,327 10,076 11,311 13,483 10,941 12,280 13,482 13,871 14,321 4,738 3,959 4,880 5,018 5,978 6,113 6,266 6,376 6,179 4,688 6,435 6,613 6,177 6,325 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Air Freight exports Air Freight imports 17 Figure 3.6: Consumer Internet traffic Source: Adapted Cisco VNI, 2015. Market research firm TeleGeography reckons international bandwidth increased 44 percent 2014 211 Tbps (including international Internet, private networks switched voice traffic).19 Reflecting important role United States Internet economy, routes North America Europe, Asia, Latin America highest capacity, exceeding 15 Tbps (Figure 3.7). aggregated international bandwidth possibly suggest trends global -commerce trends related services digital products, relevant bi-lateral flows. challenge bi-lateral Internet bandwidth countries publish data. Figure 3.7: international bandwidth, Tbps, 2014 Source: TeleGeography. 19 https://www.telegeography./page_attachments/products/website/research-services/global-bandwidth-research- service/0005/9474/gb15-exec-sum.pdf. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total (PB Month) Internet video 64% Web, email, data 18% File sharing 18% Online gaming 0.1% Internet traffic subsegment (2014) 18 3.2.3 Payments data B2B -commerce transactions, electronic funds transfers important form payment. data payments, . Credit card usage give indication B2C -commerce growth markets. credit card industry term "card present" refer transactions card physically present. situation purchases Internet apply cases (giving information telephone fax). United States Federal Reserve Bank reported "card present" transactions US$1.4 trillion 2012, 16.3 percent previous year. figure times greater retail -commerce sales, growth rates similar (Figure 3.8, left). time series "card present" transactions test relation -commerce growth larger time period. Payment data proxy cross-border trade contrasted enterprise reported figures online retail sales. National Australia Bank (NAB) analyses daily -cash transactions compile monthly figures online retail spending.20 figure twelve months February 2014 – $15 billion – times greater figure compiled period Australian Bureau Statistics (ABS) total online retail trade (including services) country ($5.9 billion) (Figure 3.8, ).21 difference explained cross-border shopping. NAB figure appears include ABS figure refers online retail sales Australian companies. source, Australians purchased $6.5 billion products (including airline tickets) overseas websites 2013 (PayPal 2015). Figure 3.8: Card present, US Australia online shopping, 2013 Payments predictor -commerce country case Australia illustrates, possibly explain cross-border -commerce flows. number countries compile payments data, granularity insufficient definitions data vague, restricting usage indicator -commerce trends. 20 http://business.nab..au/online-retail-sales-index--depth-report-january-2015-9980/. 21 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8501.0Appendix1Aug%202015opendocument&tab =Notes&prodno=8501.0&issue=Aug%202015&num=&view=. 16% 16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Retail -commerce Card present US, $ trillion, 2012 Annual growth 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 ABS NAB Difference (NAB-ABS) Online overseas shopping Australia, online shopping ($ ), 2013 19 3.2.4 Digital trade Digital trade defined trade purely digitized products downloaded streamed Internet. includes audio, video, print, gaming computer software products (Figure 3.9). Digitization affected types products traded impacts depending industry. 2011, 40% global revenues electronic games digital sales figure music . hand, digital sales books, newspapers film accounted small proportion. difficult obtain trade data products, amalgamated generic trade categories. difficult track trade digital products electronically downloaded streamed bits traversing space seller consumer, evading customs statistical counting mechanisms. increasingly important obtain data suppliers products. Figure 3.9: Publishing entertainment industries global revenue (US$ ), 2012 proportion revenue digital sales, 2011 Source: IPA 2015 IFPI 2015. Digital sales growing industries. International Federation Phonographic Industry (IFPI), digital sales music worth US$6.9 billion 2014, accounting proportion physical sales (Figure 3.10, top left). Data United States show online sales video games surpassed physical product sales 2014 (Figure 3.10, top ). Similarly, digitally delivered films TV shows account largest proportion home entertainment spending United States distribution channel growing (Figure 3.10, bottom left). -books data suggest captured 10% publishing market US UK (Figure 3.10, bottom ). Growth digital sales mirrors consumer demand. Data EU show proportion consumers buying digital products online changed , delivered online increased (Figure 3.11). , information purchases domestic cross-border. range copyright, licensing legal issues entertainment products affecting legal cross-border sales Internet. result, instances products digital online purchase country purchaser. led rise "national" digital stores. , IFPI, 400 online music stores 150 countries. Ironically, online store physically present country, consumers prohibited digital purchases country. 22 restrictions, 22 http://www.macworld./article/2029991/crossing-borders---itunes-store.html. 20 limited legal cross-border significant illegal trade digital products. study, 40 percent software installed personal computers world 2013 illegal.23 Figure 3.10: Digital share publishing entertainment industries Source: Adapted IFPI, EA, DEG Wischenbart. Figure 3.11: Online purchase digital products digital deliveries, EU Note: chart, estimates missing data shown dashed lines. Source: Adapted Eurostat. 23 Business Software Alliance. 2014. BSA Global Software Survey. http://globalstudy.bsa.org/2013/. -10.9% -13.7% 16.1% 39% 19% 42% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Packaged goods Rental Digital US home entertainment spending format change 2013-14 share 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% Sweden France Germany Netherlands UK US eBooks % total market, 2013 latest 38 38 40 41 39 32 29 29 31 28 29 25 25 29 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Online purchase (% online shoppers) Books/magazin es/-learning material Films/music Computer software 18 15 16 18 14 13 17 9 9 16 18 15 16 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Online purchase delivered online (% online shoppers) Video games software Films/music Books/magazin es/-learning material Computer software 21 4 Cross-border -commerce estimates method estimating cross-border -commerce survey sellers amount overseas sales. mentioned , , enterprise -commerce surveys capturing -commerce. surveys provide separately information cross-border sales. official national data overseas -commerce sales broken B2B B2C. paucity data, organizations cross-border B2C estimates, based consumer surveys assumed ratio users purchased total purchases. official data retail -commerce (Table 4.1), top ten economies reporting data compiled government agencies, official statistics cross-border -commerce virtually -existent. governments compile demand side data number individuals buy foreign websites (offering insights B2C C2C) collect data actual transactions. Japanese METI publishes data cross-border B2C -commerce. national -commerce industry associations publish data cross-border B2C -commerce trade. Table 4.1: Online shoppers revenue, top 10 economies , 2014 Economy nline shoppers (% Internet users) um ber online shoppers ( ) hop overseas site (% online shoppers) Source ype B2C sales $ shopper (US$) Source ype China 56 361 ...‡ CNNIC QG $453 $1,253 NBOS Gov United States 79 * 167 ...‡ USC AC $298 Census Bureau Gov United Kingdom 85 36 34 ONS Gov $171 $4,702 IMRG IA Japan 57 57 ... MIC Gov $121 $2,116 METI Gov France 56 23 39 INSEE Gov $76 $3,319 Fevad IA Germany 70 41 22 Destatis Gov $56 $1,358 GTAI Gov Korea (Rep.) 51 21 10 KISA Gov $43 $2,038 KOSIS Gov Taiwan 30 5 ... TWNIC QG $26 * III QC Spain 49 13 48 INE Gov $19 * ONTSI QC Canada 56 † 14 84 Statistics Canada Gov $19 † $1,400 Statistics Canada Gov Note: * 2013. † 2012. ‡ -official sources. QC= Quasi-government. AC=Academic. Gov = Government. IA = Industry Association. estimates B2C cross-border -commerce compiled market research firms (Table 4.2). Ecommerce Foundation, 309 million online shoppers purchased overseas websites 2014 spending US$328 billion. US -commerce sites popular 47% buy cross-border making purchase US seller. Express courier UPS estimated cross-border retail -commerce ( goods) pegging US$80 million 2014, significantly Ecommerce Foundation. UPS reckons cross-border B2C sales rise US$330 million 2020, accounting 11% total ( 6.5% 2014). PayPal conducted study world' largest -commerce markets (China, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia Brazil) reporting US$105 billion spent cross- border B2C 94 million shoppers overseas web sites (Marcus 2015). projected rise 130 million cross-border shoppers generating US$307 billion 2018. , OC& Strategy Consultants calculated cross-border sales countries estimate account global - commerce. estimate derived cross-border parcel shipments (implying refers goods) reckons cross-border -commerce accounted 8% total sales 2013. 22 Table 4.2: Industry analysts’ estimates cross-border B2C -commerce revenues shoppers Company Year B2C -commerce sales (US$ ) Online Shoppers () Forecast Year B2C -commerce sales (US$ ) Online Shoppers () Total Cross- border Total Cross- border Total Cross-border Total Cross-border % total % total % total CAG % total CAG Accenture/ AliResearch 2014 1,589 233 15% 1,316 309 23% 2020 3,394 994 29% 27% 2,114 943 45% 20% Ecommerce Foundation 2014 1,943 328 17% 1,139 309 27% OC& (6 countries)† 2013 313 25 8% 2020 722 130 18% PayPal (6 countries)‡ 2013 105 93.7 2018 307 24% 130 7% UPS/ ComScore 2014 1,316 80 6% 2020 3,089 330 11% 27% Note: † US, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands & “Nordics” OC& accounted global B2C -commerce. ‡ Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, UK & US. Source: UNCTAD, based Alizila 2015, Ecommerce Foundation 2015, OC& 2014, PayPal 2015, comScore 2015. significant differences discrepancies data sets break individual country data sources. , share cross-border -commerce varies 6% 17% estimates cross-border -commerce ranging US$80 billion US$328 billion. reason related data coverage, includes services, estimates clear . Generally, estimates B2C B2B -commerce. 5 Conclusions recommendations report shows, official market research data cross-border B2C -commerce trade starting emerge. , quality, methodology transparency differ, inhibiting cross-country benchmarking, case studies market research firms. concern demand side surveys tend overstate perception domestic retail -commerce revenues cross-border sales adjusted . , web-based consumer surveys nationally representative consumers generally poor recall specific types questions countries purchased ( high proportion users origin web sites shopping ) amounts spent.24 result, cross-border data suffer issues regular -commerce data concepts, definitions sources vary widely countries ( discussion Canada ). importantly B2B -commerce significant international trade goods services. multinational company strategies market forces clear cross-border -commerce grow rates forecast market studies. strategy multinationals set online shops overseas. Sales shops considered overseas cross-border. , domestic online shops intensify steps regain market share overseas shops. , noted, foreign retailers launching overseas web sites. domestic retailers 24 http://www.warc./Pages/Search/WordSearch.aspxq=AID:102078&Filter=ALL%20OF%20WARC&Area= LL%20OF%20WARC. 23 losing business prices, compete reducing , sense buyers purchase overseas due shipping costs import duties. biggest barrier shopping total cost harder deal problems facing domestic sites competitive pricing product selection. Achieving major reductions international shipment costs customs procedures short run. , time, open marketplaces international subsidiaries increasingly meet demand overseas products. , cross-border demand grow significantly niche products countries -developed online shopping market.25 case, developing nations. , clear cross-border shipments significant purchasing power, smaller Internet penetration undeveloped logistics. terms official statistics cross border -commerce, optimum method supply side enterprise surveys. straightforward domestic retailers sales. earlier Japan implies markets Spain shows, question step existing tools. , Eurostat' ICT Enterprises survey questions proportion -commerce sales domestic overseas customers (Table 5.1). similarly applied questions asked enterprises purchases. medium term, comprehensive -commerce module envisioned includes disaggregation B2C B2B countries sold trade matrices constructed, incorporates smaller sellers includes cross-border GMV C2C marketplaces. 25 , cross border transactions reportedly comprise 40% Malaysia' -commerce sales reason cited lack local -commerce options. : http://www.specommerce..s3.amazonaws./dl/fs/141124_fs_malaysia_12_things_you_need_to_know_2.pdf. 24 Table 5.1 Suggested enhancements Eurostat COMMUNITY SURVEY ON ICT USAGE AND - COMMERCE IN ENTERPRISES, -Commerce sales 25 26 References Alizila. 2015. “Report: Cross-border -commerce Reach $1 Trillion 2020.” http://www.alizila./report-cross-border--commerce-reach-1-trillion-2020-charts. .. 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